Article
Global Credit Quarterly 1Q 2026: Dispersion, Not Disruption
BlackRock’s Global Credit Quarterly addresses the most topical developments and key themes across the global corporate credit markets (both liquid and private). Below are the key takeaways from the 1Q2026 report.
Key Takeaways
-
Macro
We believe we are now past the peak headwinds related to trade policy uncertainty, debt service costs, and economic weakness. We see scope for growth to track at a trend pace in 1Q2026, and the labor market to stabilize after a few months of notable weakening. Episodic volatility is likely to remain a persistent theme. In both liquid and private credit, we expect an environment of heightened dispersion, but not widespread market disruption.
-
Liquid Credit
Spread valuations are tight vs. history, but the bar for a sustained widening is still high, in our view. We continue to prioritize the income and all-in yield aspects of liquid credit (which still screen as compelling vs. history), as opposed to a potential total return ‘boost’ from tighter spreads or materially lower interest rates.
-
Private Credit
The structural shifts driving private credit’s expanding addressable markets of borrowers and investors remain firmly in place. Dispersion across managers, vintages, and company characteristics (size, sector) will become increasingly evident, in our view.
-
Commercial Real Estate (CRE)
The recovery in the CRE market has been slow, but steady. We expect this to extend in 2026, driven by an ongoing rebound in transaction volumes, as buyer and seller expectations move into better alignment. Similar to the credit market backdrop, dispersion is also a prominent theme.
-
Risks to Our View
A sharp downturn in global growth and severe deterioration in corporate profit margins are the key downside risks, as this could fuel additional deterioration in the labor market. Upside risks include an above-trend pace of economic activity, bolstered by a combination of resilient consumer spending and business investment.
Institutional Investors can read the full quarterly report by clicking here and visiting the BlackRock website.
Disclosures
This material is intended for information purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. This material may contain estimates and forward-looking statements, which may include forecasts and do not represent a guarantee of future performance. This information is not intended to be complete or exhaustive and no representations or warranties, either express or implied, are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. The opinions expressed are as of October 2025 and are subject to change without notice. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investing involves risks.