Article
Global Credit Quarterly 4Q 2025: Still Climbing the 'Wall of Worry'
BlackRock’s Global Credit Quarterly addresses the most topical developments and key themes across the global corporate credit markets (both liquid and private). Below are the key takeaways from the 4Q2025 report.
Key Takeaways
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Macro
While U.S. growth has moderated from the above-trend pace of 2021-2024, it is ‘supportive enough’ to sustain resilience in risk assets, in our view. This should translate into normalizing monetary policy from the Fed, not a deep easing cycle. We see scope for a convergence between U.S. and European growth.
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Liquid Credit
We continue to see an opportunity cost in being too defensive and remain comfortable selectively moving down in credit quality, given solid corporate fundamentals. We prioritize income and carry over duration exposure, given our rates view.
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Private Credit
The structural growth drivers behind this asset class remain in place, and episodic market volatility is likely to further expand the addressable market of borrowers seeking a private financing solution. Similar to liquid credit, the fundamental signals are encouraging, in aggregate, albeit with some visible dispersion. This underscores the importance of credit selection, underwriting and workout expertise.
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Commercial Real Estate (CRE)
Pricing has stabilized across even the most challenged sectors, and investors appear to be embracing an environment of structurally higher interest rates. This should support further momentum in transaction volumes, as well as the refinancing of CRE loans (scheduled and recent extensions).
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Risks to Our View
A sharp downturn in global growth and severe deterioration in corporate profit margins are the key downside risks. Upside risks include an above-trend pace of economic activity, bolstered by a combination of consumer spending and business investment.
Institutional Investors can read the full quarterly report by clicking here and visiting the BlackRock website.
Disclosures
This material is intended for information purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. This material may contain estimates and forward-looking statements, which may include forecasts and do not represent a guarantee of future performance. This information is not intended to be complete or exhaustive and no representations or warranties, either express or implied, are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. The opinions expressed are as of October 2025 and are subject to change without notice. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investing involves risks.